# bayes in roulette?

#### ybot

Real world has not defined rules, anything can happen, ypu are exposed to many risks they can rule your fate.
Games of chance at the examples can be analized

#### Maschke

Real world has not defined rules ...
In that case, what is science?

anything can happen, ypu are exposed to many risks they can rule your fate.
That sounds like nihilism. Why study and work hard, the world's random. If I run someone over with my car, that's not my fault. It's my bad luck and theirs. I might as well text and drink while I drive. Sadly a lot of drivers out there act exactly that way. But I don't. I look where I'm going. I believe the universe has at least that much order to it.

Do you live your own life in accordance with the philosophy of fate? Or is this just something you wrote on the Internet this evening?

Games of chance at the examples can be analized
Yes, constrained domains in which we know the rules are easier to analyze. That does not necessarily mean that life and the universe have no rules. Only that we, like the blindfolded coin guesser, don't know the rules.

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#### Maschke

ps -- Sorry if my philosophical musings got too far off the topic. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable about statistics and probability can respond to your point about 2.5 standard deviations.

#### ybot

There are many other conditions that could work in real world. It sometimes does not follow rules. Unexpected events could happens.
A casino game or a coin flip have less hidden conditions.
Our fate obeys to many random variables. When you sucess it is all skill, when you miss is bad luck. A common thinking.
I know many decision in your life, right or wrong had some random help. Sucessfull people were inrolled in a list a when up to their carreer due to skill+luck. You do not hear from the ones who left the way to success, but, a smart man come over again to compete.
Thanks for you replies. I know my example is not easy

#### ybot

how could you update a non accurate a priori hypothesis?
Suppose you know a coin is unfaqir, now, you must infer how much unfair it is
You can predict a 10% advantage to heads(60/40) , you generate a new test , you set 2 standard deviations as a confidence to be close to doublecheck you hypothesis.
Your new test shows less advantage, we must find the appropiate trials with +2sd in favor to heads to determine you were right
Truth might be +5% or +15%, how would be the steps to find it out?