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January 6th, 2015, 01:35 AM  #1 
Newbie Joined: Jan 2015 From: hong kong Posts: 3 Thanks: 0  Measuring predictions, statistically
Sorry if this question might appear to be a bit vague. I am trying to measure the performance of my model, by comparing the actual shots on target attained by a football team against a predicted amount of shots that my model estimates. I have been reading up on various methods that might help me, but can't quite figure out where to turn. Should I be using some sort of log likelihood (logistical regression) method? Or do I need to find the MSE (mean squared error)? Any help would be greatly appreciated 
January 5th, 2017, 06:43 PM  #2 
Senior Member Joined: Oct 2013 From: New York, USA Posts: 477 Thanks: 71 
The "Team Performance vs Expected" could have the absolute value of the difference between the two columns, but that might not be useful. I think models need to be compared to each other rather than evaluating one model by itself. Your model has a correlation (r) = 0.4050020254. A positive correlation means the your model predicts in the correct direction.


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