
Probability and Statistics Basic Probability and Statistics Math Forum 
 LinkBack  Thread Tools  Display Modes 
January 6th, 2015, 01:35 AM  #1 
Newbie Joined: Jan 2015 From: hong kong Posts: 3 Thanks: 0  Measuring predictions, statistically
Sorry if this question might appear to be a bit vague. I am trying to measure the performance of my model, by comparing the actual shots on target attained by a football team against a predicted amount of shots that my model estimates. I have been reading up on various methods that might help me, but can't quite figure out where to turn. Should I be using some sort of log likelihood (logistical regression) method? Or do I need to find the MSE (mean squared error)? Any help would be greatly appreciated 
January 5th, 2017, 06:43 PM  #2 
Senior Member Joined: Oct 2013 From: New York, USA Posts: 522 Thanks: 74 
The "Team Performance vs Expected" could have the absolute value of the difference between the two columns, but that might not be useful. I think models need to be compared to each other rather than evaluating one model by itself. Your model has a correlation (r) = 0.4050020254. A positive correlation means the your model predicts in the correct direction.


Tags 
measuring, predictions, statistically 
Thread Tools  
Display Modes  

Similar Threads  
Thread  Thread Starter  Forum  Replies  Last Post 
Linear Graph Future Predictions  hein123  Linear Algebra  0  June 7th, 2014 01:57 AM 
Measuring Reflections  icor1031  Algebra  8  April 3rd, 2014 04:08 PM 
Bayesian predictions  ybot  Advanced Statistics  4  July 7th, 2013 04:14 AM 
How to determine the accuracy of predictions?  TheAndruu  Algebra  7  May 13th, 2010 04:39 PM 
Making a measuring stick for an oiltank  wahlstrom  Algebra  8  December 28th, 2007 12:45 PM 