My Math Forum Measuring predictions, statistically

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January 6th, 2015, 01:35 AM   #1
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Measuring predictions, statistically

Sorry if this question might appear to be a bit vague.

I am trying to measure the performance of my model, by comparing the actual shots on target attained by a football team against a predicted amount of shots that my model estimates.

I have been reading up on various methods that might help me, but can't quite figure out where to turn.
Should I be using some sort of log likelihood (logistical regression) method?
Or do I need to find the MSE (mean squared error)?

Any help would be greatly appreciated
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 January 5th, 2017, 06:43 PM #2 Senior Member   Joined: Oct 2013 From: New York, USA Posts: 522 Thanks: 74 The "Team Performance vs Expected" could have the absolute value of the difference between the two columns, but that might not be useful. I think models need to be compared to each other rather than evaluating one model by itself. Your model has a correlation (r) = 0.4050020254. A positive correlation means the your model predicts in the correct direction.

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