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October 15th, 2013, 11:30 PM   #1
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what's the probability of a virus growing exponentially?

Hello,

I'm a web developer. I don't know much about math. But I was thinking that maybe someone in your forum might be able to help to analyse a math problem I'm sort of involved in.

I had developed an online application that I was originally thinking would have a viral effect to it online. As it turns out I see little viral effect happening now that the site is live. Which I find very odd.

Even though I don't know math really I created a mathematical model for the website which goes something like this:

1 Person Visiting The Website: The function of that visitor would be to use the site to send a message to their social network following of on average about 1200 friends. Out of those 1200 people seeing the post (by their subject friend) my guess was that perhaps 1% of those friends seeing the message might click on the link to my site that gets posted beside any post they do via my site.

This is what I was originally hoping to produce:

========================================
Average total number of social networking friends: 1200 (of a given person who uses social networks)

1200 views / 1% = 12 new visitors
12 x 10% (actually trying the site) = 1.2 new website users
1.2 new users x 1200 views = 1440 views

1440 views / 1% = 14.4 new visitors
14.4 new visitors x 10% (actually trying the site) = 1.44 new website users
1.44 x 1200 views = 1728 views

growing exponentially on this pattern...
continuing on to infinity. (until the site has gone viral world wide)
=========================================

I think it's too soon to tell but so far the visitors that are coming to the website I developed are not going viral in this pattern as I had anticipated. Obviously there must be a lot of variables that I'm totally missing or out to lunch on.

So I was just curious to see if there's anyone I can talk to over there that might have any interest in this kind of a project and or subject. I'm just mainly wondering if someone who's super smart at math over there could figure out what exactly is the problem?

The site itself is just basically a social network updating tool. The site is: http://www.babblesuite.com But my original intent for it was to try and make it go viral across the net based on these calculations I had formulated. There's obviously some errors to my formula.

I was wondering if anyone can analyse the site and my equation and tell me where I'm going wrong??? And or what I should fix or consider in my calculations in order to try and make this experiment actually work?
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October 16th, 2013, 08:48 AM   #2
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What you seem not be allowing for is that some of those who get informed via social networking will already have been informed, as they're connected via social networking. The more who get informed, the more likely this is to occur.
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