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March 11th, 2018, 03:56 PM  #1  
Newbie Joined: Mar 2018 From: Ukraine Posts: 2 Thanks: 0  Probability in roulette
We went to casino last weekend, and I'm just curious: Is it possible to beat roulette somehow? We've tried martingale strategy and it worked nicely. Just in case you dont know what is that strategy about: https://casino.guru/roulettescamstrategies So let's say I start with 1000 units. probability of win is 18/37 and lose is 19/37. With this system I can't lost more than 9 times in row (19/37)^9 = 0.0025 = 0.25% Quote:
 
March 11th, 2018, 04:22 PM  #2 
Math Team Joined: Dec 2013 From: Colombia Posts: 7,515 Thanks: 2515 Math Focus: Mainly analysis and algebra 
I think you need inside assistance to win at roulette. With Martingale you win very small and lose very big. To illustrate: 401 winning Martingale cycles net you 401 (winning 1 more than you lose each time). The losing cycle loses you 511 ($2^91$). For an expected loss of 110. That's a conservative scenario too as your strategy requires you to stop at the first loss. Last edited by v8archie; March 11th, 2018 at 04:34 PM. 
March 11th, 2018, 04:23 PM  #3 
Global Moderator Joined: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,004 Thanks: 1862 
To minimize your expected loss, bet nothing.

March 11th, 2018, 04:27 PM  #4 
Senior Member Joined: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,102 Thanks: 606 
It's been done. In the 1970's a group of physics grad students built the world's first wearable computer. By observing a roulette wheel over a period of time and inputting the data into the computer, they could make educated guesses as to the result of the next spin. It worked but they gave it up after a while. One team member burned a hole in her skin when the computer shorted out. There was a documentary I saw a while back about them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eudaemons In terms of betting strategies you can't beat the wheel. There are 36 numbers plus 0 and 00, but the odds pay off as if there were only 36 numbers. You eventually lose. But you have fun and get free drinks, which is the way to think about casinos. Also Martingale strategies do work fine on paper. But they assume you have unbounded resources to ride out losing streaks. Since you don't have unbounded resources, the strategy fails. Last edited by Maschke; March 11th, 2018 at 04:30 PM. 
March 11th, 2018, 04:44 PM  #5 
Newbie Joined: Mar 2018 From: Ukraine Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 
Thanks guys. I didn't know about that thing with mini computer. That's interesting. Last edited by skipjack; March 11th, 2018 at 06:33 PM. 

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martingale, probability, roulette 
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