
Probability and Statistics Basic Probability and Statistics Math Forum 
 LinkBack  Thread Tools  Display Modes 
July 20th, 2017, 08:42 AM  #1 
Newbie Joined: Jul 2017 From: South Carolina Posts: 2 Thanks: 0  Sweepstakes probability
Hello, I’m new to this forum, I hope someone can give some inputs. I recently played a sweepstakes in which one had to click 3 icons, which would reveal 3 pictures, either Pic1 or Pic2. If the 3 pics matched, one wins. Of course, this was such that always, no matter which order clicked, the first 2 icons matched, but the third one did not. Since this is in reality very unlikely (and, I feel, this is actually a malfeasance), I would like to know what the probability of this happening is. It would seem to me that it is somehow related to conditional probability (or rather, lack thereof), since the outcome of one icon should be independent of any other icon previously unveiled. The other thought would be, to take the overall outcome together and determine the likelyhood of its outcome, but that would ignore the "it’s always the last one that misses". Anyone can share any insights? Thank you. Last edited by Mattokun; July 20th, 2017 at 08:46 AM. 
July 20th, 2017, 01:57 PM  #2 
Global Moderator Joined: May 2007 Posts: 6,399 Thanks: 546 
From your description, I would say the game was fixed.

August 1st, 2017, 11:22 AM  #3 
Newbie Joined: Jul 2017 From: South Carolina Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 
I think I have to maybe clarify this a bit more: There are 3 “doors”, if you will, that you can click on, in any order. Each “door” has 2 possible outcomes, a “win” or a “dud”. If all 3 “doors” are clicked, and all 3 show a “win”, then it’s an overall “win”. Else, it’s a “loss”. The situation, and what I feel like a cheat, is that the first 2 “doors” clicked are ALWAYS “wins”, no matter which ones are clicked in what order. I guess I call this the “bait”. Then, of course the third “doors” clicked is ALWAYS a “dud”, no matter which (remaining) “door” that is. This gives then of course the “oh, you were sooo close!!” message. My inquiry here is that, I believe it cannot be that, if those “doors” were truly assigned with random outcomes “win” or “dud”, that the outcome described above would be very likely. In other words, I think they cheat, and their trick is to make people think that it is all random and people are just not lucky enough to get the price. So, what I want to know is, how can I calculate the probability of the outcome described above, or maybe more clearly, how can I prove that this game is cheating? Last edited by skipjack; August 7th, 2017 at 08:18 PM. 
August 7th, 2017, 08:20 PM  #4 
Global Moderator Joined: Dec 2006 Posts: 18,250 Thanks: 1439 
Does the game state that the results should be random?


Tags 
probability, sweepstakes 
Thread Tools  
Display Modes  

Similar Threads  
Thread  Thread Starter  Forum  Replies  Last Post 
Continuous probability; find probability density function  rivaaa  Advanced Statistics  5  November 5th, 2015 02:51 PM 
probability set theory  probability of x out of n events  hbonstrom  Applied Math  0  November 17th, 2012 08:11 PM 
Joint probability density function, probability  token22  Advanced Statistics  2  April 26th, 2012 04:28 PM 
Probability (probability mass function,pmf)  naspek  Calculus  1  December 15th, 2009 02:18 PM 