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November 20th, 2016, 07:08 AM   #1
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Statistics question.(lottery example)

OK so this is a question I came up with a while back and have had really no way to test it, I wanted some feedback as to whether it would work or not. Somehow I doubt that it would actually work but it's a cool thought experiment non the less.

If we have a lottery where the winning number is a randomly generated number between 1 and 1000 inclusivley, then if you also in turn randomly generate your ticket entry basic statistics says you should have a 1/1000 chance of winning.

But what if we use this same principle in reverse to try to improve our overall odds of winning,

Let's say we generated the number, 17 there is a 999/1000 that is the incorrect number, so let us throw it out of our pool of numbers, and generate a new number 1-1000(excluding 17)

Let's say we get 32, well the odds of that being the correct number are now 1/999 assuming we are correct in throwing out 17 (which we are pretty sure about being incorrect).and still a least a 999/1000 chance of being the wrong number, or a 998/999 chance of being the wrong number and 17 being the wrong number.

So we simply repeat the process, throw out the number 32 and generate a new number 1-1000 excluding 32 and 17.

I'm sure I've committed some critical mistake here, but it seems like to me our odds are improving, to the point where over multiple sessesive games, you could have a higher win rate, than what pure chance would allow.
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November 20th, 2016, 10:44 AM   #2
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you are assuming correlation between the random numbers coming out of the lottery machine and the random numbers coming out of your machine.

There is (theoretically) no correlation between these two streams of random numbers. The stream of numbers coming from your machines provides exactly zero information about those coming out of the lottery machine.
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November 20th, 2016, 10:56 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by romsek View Post
you are assuming correlation between the random numbers coming out of the lottery machine and the random numbers coming out of your machine.

There is (theoretically) no correlation between these two streams of random numbers. The stream of numbers coming from your machines provides exactly zero information about those coming out of the lottery machine.


It's not about correlation, although I can kinda see why you say that it's about statistical likely hood of correlation
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November 20th, 2016, 11:06 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jonatron5 View Post
It's not about correlation, although I can kinda see why you say that it's about statistical likely hood of correlation
it's totally about correlation.

Let's say the lottery machine makes it's number picks. So these are fixed.

Any sequence of numbers coming from your machine has exactly the same probability of occurrence as any other sequence, and none of these are affected in the least by the sequence from the lottery machine.

Your machine and any number sequences it produces provide zero information about the lottery sequence.
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