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December 11th, 2015, 05:31 AM   #1
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Chance of stem cell match

Hi

I'm trying to find the combined probability that a person will be a tissue mach to a single sibling.

The probability that a sibling will be:
a) an identical match to another sibling is 25% (1 in 4)
b) a half-match to another sibling is 50% (1 in 2)

There is some overlap because if a sibling is identical match they will also be, by definition, a half-match at the same time.

Was told that the combined probability that a person will be a tissue mach to a single sibling is 75% (i.e. 25% chance of a half-match + 50% chance of identical match). Is this correct?

Thanks in advance for helping me.

Last edited by Nartholemue; December 11th, 2015 at 05:32 AM. Reason: additional information required
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December 11th, 2015, 09:42 AM   #2
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Hello,

I think the answer to your question depends on your statement:
Quote:
There is some overlap because if a sibling is identical match they will also be, by definition, a half-match at the same time.
If this is actually the case, then the identical match case is a subset of the half-match case, so the combined probability is 50%.

But if the intent is that the probability of a half-match and not an identical match is 50%, then the combined probability is 75%.

Maybe you can tell from where you got the probabilities from. Or maybe someone else here can tell if there is an obvious intent in how the probabilities are stated.
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