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October 5th, 2011, 11:43 PM   #1
Joined: Oct 2011

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Probability problem

My first post, hopefully I'll do more than just posting problems

We know that a bridge falls with probability 0.8 if the main structure break and this happens with probability 0.001.
What is the break probability knowing that the bridge has fallen?

If this helps, think of it this way:

A - Means the event of the main structure breaking
B - Means the event of the bridge falling

p(A) = 0.001
p(B|A) = 0.8
P(A|B) = ????
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