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August 23rd, 2015, 08:40 AM   #1
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Probability of goals in a football match?

I am trying to work out the probability of teams scoring a goal in a football match. Obviously there are many factors to consider, and the probability is impossible to predict correctly as there are many factors that will change in a football match. However i want to figure out the probability using only the following information. A lot of work has been done on predicting football matches using poisson distribution, but in this case, i only want it to be based on the stats that i have.

So for this example it is Team A vs Team B.

Team A Scores in 70% of their home matches (a) Team B Concedes in 50% of their away matches (b)

Team B Scores in 10% of their away matches (c) Team A Concedes in 30% of their home matches (d)

I have managed to calculate the probability of a goal by using the following formula:

(a+c)-(a*c)

I believe this calculation to be correct but it only takes into account the stats for team A or team B SCORING, it does not take into account the stat of the opposite team conceding.

So basically i am after a formula that takes into consideration team A's ability to score against team B's ability to concede, and the same for team B to score and team A to concede.
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