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April 27th, 2017, 11:49 PM   #1
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Political forecasting model...

I was dreaming of developing a political forecasting model as previously I had a dissertation where I was trying to map AI prediction to the probability to win an election.

Therefore a simple model based on probability:

p(W) = [0..0] where there are 13 districts for which there is a probability of winning around 10% of votes to win a seat in the House of Representatives.

p(L) = [0.1.. 0.1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Districts_of_Malta

political forecasting


Which variables would you map on x and y graphs?

x1
x2
x3
x4
x5

y1
y2
y3
y4
y5
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April 27th, 2017, 11:54 PM   #2
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x1, reputation (bias)
x2, acumen, and background
x3, ability to deliver
x4, resources in place to deliver
x5, time to deliver
x6, quality required to deliver

y1 long-term visibility criterion
y2 economic factors
y3 social factors
y4 political competition factor
y5 gamma factor


NOTE: No greek alphabet in this formula editor please?
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April 27th, 2017, 11:56 PM   #3
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Joined: Feb 2016
From: Australia

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Math Focus: Yet to find out.
What is the relationship between x and y? How does the reputation impact the long-term visibility (i.e., x1 and y1).
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