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April 27th, 2017, 10:49 PM  #1 
Newbie Joined: Apr 2009 Posts: 10 Thanks: 0  Political forecasting model...
I was dreaming of developing a political forecasting model as previously I had a dissertation where I was trying to map AI prediction to the probability to win an election. Therefore a simple model based on probability: p(W) = [0..0] where there are 13 districts for which there is a probability of winning around 10% of votes to win a seat in the House of Representatives. p(L) = [0.1.. 0.1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Districts_of_Malta political forecasting Which variables would you map on x and y graphs? x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 y1 y2 y3 y4 y5 
April 27th, 2017, 10:54 PM  #2 
Newbie Joined: Apr 2009 Posts: 10 Thanks: 0  x1, reputation (bias) x2, acumen, and background x3, ability to deliver x4, resources in place to deliver x5, time to deliver x6, quality required to deliver y1 longterm visibility criterion y2 economic factors y3 social factors y4 political competition factor y5 gamma factor NOTE: No greek alphabet in this formula editor please? 
April 27th, 2017, 10:56 PM  #3 
Senior Member Joined: Feb 2016 From: Australia Posts: 1,320 Thanks: 450 Math Focus: Yet to find out. 
What is the relationship between x and y? How does the reputation impact the longterm visibility (i.e., x1 and y1).


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forecasting, model, political 
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