My Math Forum  

Go Back   My Math Forum > Welcome > New Users

New Users Post up here and introduce yourself!

LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
April 27th, 2017, 10:49 PM   #1
Joined: Apr 2009

Posts: 10
Thanks: 0

Political forecasting model...

I was dreaming of developing a political forecasting model as previously I had a dissertation where I was trying to map AI prediction to the probability to win an election.

Therefore a simple model based on probability:

p(W) = [0..0] where there are 13 districts for which there is a probability of winning around 10% of votes to win a seat in the House of Representatives.

p(L) = [0.1.. 0.1]

political forecasting

Which variables would you map on x and y graphs?


jon80 is offline  
April 27th, 2017, 10:54 PM   #2
Joined: Apr 2009

Posts: 10
Thanks: 0

x1, reputation (bias)
x2, acumen, and background
x3, ability to deliver
x4, resources in place to deliver
x5, time to deliver
x6, quality required to deliver

y1 long-term visibility criterion
y2 economic factors
y3 social factors
y4 political competition factor
y5 gamma factor

NOTE: No greek alphabet in this formula editor please?
jon80 is offline  
April 27th, 2017, 10:56 PM   #3
Senior Member
Joined: Feb 2016
From: Australia

Posts: 1,769
Thanks: 626

Math Focus: Yet to find out.
What is the relationship between x and y? How does the reputation impact the long-term visibility (i.e., x1 and y1).
Joppy is offline  

  My Math Forum > Welcome > New Users

forecasting, model, political

« First post | SoS »

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
I'm Looking For A Political Polling and Statistics Textbook EvanJ Math Books 0 August 1st, 2016 06:39 PM
HJM Model Gost91 Economics 3 October 5th, 2015 07:00 PM
Forecasting percentages by proportions haz33 Elementary Math 3 March 9th, 2014 09:57 PM
Sales forecasting Spook Advanced Statistics 1 September 13th, 2012 04:55 AM
Difficult forecasting/ density estimation problem whaddup Advanced Statistics 1 July 4th, 2011 04:59 AM

Copyright © 2019 My Math Forum. All rights reserved.