
New Users Post up here and introduce yourself! 
 LinkBack  Thread Tools  Display Modes 
April 27th, 2017, 10:49 PM  #1 
Newbie Joined: Apr 2009 Posts: 10 Thanks: 0  Political forecasting model...
I was dreaming of developing a political forecasting model as previously I had a dissertation where I was trying to map AI prediction to the probability to win an election. Therefore a simple model based on probability: p(W) = [0..0] where there are 13 districts for which there is a probability of winning around 10% of votes to win a seat in the House of Representatives. p(L) = [0.1.. 0.1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Districts_of_Malta political forecasting Which variables would you map on x and y graphs? x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 y1 y2 y3 y4 y5 
April 27th, 2017, 10:54 PM  #2 
Newbie Joined: Apr 2009 Posts: 10 Thanks: 0  x1, reputation (bias) x2, acumen, and background x3, ability to deliver x4, resources in place to deliver x5, time to deliver x6, quality required to deliver y1 longterm visibility criterion y2 economic factors y3 social factors y4 political competition factor y5 gamma factor NOTE: No greek alphabet in this formula editor please? 
April 27th, 2017, 10:56 PM  #3 
Senior Member Joined: Feb 2016 From: Australia Posts: 1,600 Thanks: 546 Math Focus: Yet to find out. 
What is the relationship between x and y? How does the reputation impact the longterm visibility (i.e., x1 and y1).


Tags 
forecasting, model, political 
Thread Tools  
Display Modes  

Similar Threads  
Thread  Thread Starter  Forum  Replies  Last Post 
I'm Looking For A Political Polling and Statistics Textbook  EvanJ  Math Books  0  August 1st, 2016 06:39 PM 
HJM Model  Gost91  Economics  3  October 5th, 2015 07:00 PM 
Forecasting percentages by proportions  haz33  Elementary Math  3  March 9th, 2014 09:57 PM 
Sales forecasting  Spook  Advanced Statistics  1  September 13th, 2012 04:55 AM 
Difficult forecasting/ density estimation problem  whaddup  Advanced Statistics  1  July 4th, 2011 04:59 AM 