My Math Forum  

Go Back   My Math Forum > Math Forums > Math

Math General Math Forum - For general math related discussion and news


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
August 22nd, 2016, 05:11 PM   #1
Senior Member
 
Joined: Oct 2013
From: New York, USA

Posts: 637
Thanks: 85

Would People Know If Results Are Within A 95% Confidence Interval 95% Of The Time?

I was reading about political polling and margin of error. I'm not saying statisticians are wrong about margin of error, but what if hypothetically polls in general are within the 95% confidence interval only 75% of the time? Without asking the entire population, how would people know if the actual margin of error required for a 95% confidential interval was significantly more or less than what people think?
EvanJ is offline  
 
August 23rd, 2016, 07:15 AM   #2
Senior Member
 
Joined: Dec 2012
From: Hong Kong

Posts: 853
Thanks: 311

Math Focus: Stochastic processes, statistical inference, data mining, computational linguistics
For proportions, we can assume that the underlying distribution is binomial, which is approximately normal if the sample size is large. That's why we can approximate the distribution of the sample proportion using the normal distribution, transform it into a Z-statistic and compute the confidence interval.

BTW, the more precise interpretation of the meaning of a 95% confidence interval is that in the long run, 95% of the identically-conducted studies will yield a confidence interval that contains the desired parameter.
123qwerty is offline  
Reply

  My Math Forum > Math Forums > Math

Tags
95%, confidence, interval, people, results, time



Thread Tools
Display Modes


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Confidence Interval jiasyuen Advanced Statistics 2 January 29th, 2015 07:22 PM
Confidence interval GoldenMedal Probability and Statistics 1 June 20th, 2014 05:48 PM
Confidence interval tay101 Advanced Statistics 1 January 7th, 2014 09:37 AM
Confidence Interval please help Kat-M Advanced Statistics 0 May 12th, 2009 10:21 AM
Confidence Interval symmetry Advanced Statistics 1 June 18th, 2007 08:17 PM





Copyright © 2019 My Math Forum. All rights reserved.