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January 30th, 2009, 02:20 AM  #1 
Newbie Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 8 Thanks: 0  trendingBot, the trend finder
We (trendingIT) have developed an innovative algorithm facing data management in a different way: trendingBot, a powerful numerical simulation tool capable to find trends (equations describing relationships among the introduced data) with no user intervention (arbitrary user parameters). For further info, you can visit our webpage, our blog (for some theoretics) or take a look at some of our videos. We would love to discuss further about any issue. Thanks for your attention. 
January 30th, 2009, 09:25 AM  #2 
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: trendingBot, the trend finder
Actually, I find this very interesting. I thought it might just be random promotional spam, but it looks like a useful tool  and one relevant to this forum (here in economics or in applied math). I must admit, though, a thousand euro is quite expensive. I started writing a piece of software to do something similar: curve fitting without user intervention. How does your system compare to others? I imagine it's much easier to use than R, and more powerful than the Excel Analysis toolkit, but how does it compare to (say) CurveExpert? I often find myself using some kind of trend finder when I have runtime data: running a program with input (size) x takes time y, for some reasonable collection of x and y values. How well does your program handle this? 
January 30th, 2009, 01:26 PM  #3 
Newbie Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 8 Thanks: 0  Re: trendingBot, the trend finder
The main difference between trendingBot and conventional programs (based on conventional statistical methods) is the number of independent variables: trendingBot's algorithm can theoretically deal with a number as high as you want and in the current version, 10 independent variables!! We try to keep the algorithm unrevealed and I donīt want to say too much... it would be better to show its capabilities. You have various options:  Go to our webpage and accept the "blind test challenge": send as many data as you want (follow the instructions for protecting your privacy without losing information quality) and get completely for free and with no commitments the solution (trend, application range, expected error, etc.).  Ask for a trial version (from the webpage too). Note that you have to provide your address in order to send you the security device. If you are not very sure (because of the price, for example), just do the test: try a complex set of data (3 independent variables or more) with one of the programs that you propose and send it to us. You will see the solution and assess wheter it is worthy or not. I hope I have answered your question 
February 1st, 2009, 01:46 PM  #4  
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: trendingBot, the trend finder Quote:
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How well does your algorithm handle nonpolynomial relationships? y = x^2.5, y = 2^x, y = x log x? How about exp((log x)^a) for noninteger a? (That last one is actually much more common than you'd expect.) Obviously recognizing those  and worse, their multivariable versions  is tough. Quote:
 
February 2nd, 2009, 12:42 AM  #5  
Newbie Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 8 Thanks: 0  Re: trendingBot, the trend finder Quote:
There is no "discrimination" part, right now trendingBot is powerful but dumb. Our intention is including ASAP a new algorithm taking care of "multiple behaviours" (example: when for x=1 to x=3, y=x and for x>3 y=2.5x); logically, this part will take care of noise (by assigning a new equation or just by recognising and telling to the user). Quote:
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Conclusion: trendingBot offers ONE trend (the best one within the options it is considering) what, from our experience, gives more than enough certainty for NATURAL BEHAVIOURS. That is, if you introduce a set of data, suitable to be defined as "natural" (from experimental measurements of any kind, logical behaviours (economical/financial variables, human behaviours, highly conditioned situations (computers)), etc.) and trendingBot says "trend not found", you can be quite sure that there is no mathematical relation explaining them; on the other hand, if a trend is found, it wouldnīt for sure either the only one or the best one (out of all the possible mathematical relationships). trendingBot is a sensible alternative constructed on the basis of a trialanderror process: the taken path is not a completely comprehensive one, is the one that the experience has revealed to be the most adequate. Additionally, the whole process of algorithm improvement has just begun: nowadays it is the best option in comparison with other alternatives but it is just the first version of a different way to face the problem. ANSWERING TO YOUR QUESTION All the possibilities you propose are recognised as trends but under a different form (and worse, for example, showing a mean error (after being applied to the original data) of 1.3% instead the logical 0%). Quote:
 
February 2nd, 2009, 05:30 AM  #6  
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: trendingBot, the trend finder Quote:
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February 2nd, 2009, 06:17 AM  #7  
Newbie Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 8 Thanks: 0  Re: trendingBot, the trend finder Quote:
 
April 28th, 2009, 01:07 AM  #8 
Newbie Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 8 Thanks: 0  Re: trendingBot, the trend finder
At trendingIT, we have changed our general policy and decided to share the main theoretical ideas behind "trendingBot". If you are interested on all this, you can go to: http://www.trendingit.com/src/trendi...theoretics.htm  there, you can read some quickideas documents about the program or more detailed ones analysing the current existing forecasting methods, program's pseudocode or its mathematical foundation ("comparison within an environment"). PS: CRGreathouse, thanks for your advice(s). 
April 29th, 2009, 05:31 AM  #9 
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: trendingBot, the trend finder
I like the trend! So, in your view, why is this methodology significant? How does it differ?

April 29th, 2009, 08:26 AM  #10  
Newbie Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 8 Thanks: 0  Re: trendingBot, the trend finder Quote:
trendingBot creates a fictitious variable (x1) [resulting from all the possible combinations among the independent variables, raised at different exponents] and performs polynomial regressions between it and the corresponding dependent variable  after trying all the possibilites (within the current capabilities of the combinatorics) and evaluating their performance, the best one is chosen (the one showing the lowest mean error after being applied to all the elements within the traning dataset). You can take a look at the pseudocode (http://www.trendingit.com/docs/en/tr...pseudocode.pdf). main differences (what others do not offer):  virtually, no user intervention (out of trend definition, but it is recommended to not modify the default values) > just paste the values in.  close to actual understanding > high level of detail + in the safestsidepossible decision algorithm, reducing as much as possible an eventual overfitting. ... in summary: offering the closest solution to regression analysis beyond 2 independent variables (actual version up to 10, but perfectly increasable). but as said in some of my previous posts, the best way to know the difference is by actually testing it... Now it is easier: there is a lite version you can download whenever you want (it deals just with 5 independent variables but works forever) > http://www.trendingit.com/downloads/...click.php?id=4.  

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