My Math Forum Preventing a massive die off

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 April 10th, 2018, 12:44 PM #1 Senior Member   Joined: Nov 2013 Posts: 246 Thanks: 2 Preventing a massive die off With 44000 people on a generation ship for genetic diversity reasons, it is inevitable that some will be ill. However, if I were to go through a list of every infectious illness and decide whether or not it is allowed, should I have a death rate limit? Is there a point at which pregnancy rate and more importantly birth rate, can't overcome the death rate from infection assuming an average death rate of 8 per 1000 per year from other causes? So is there a point at which death rate from infection would cause something like this to happen to the population: In other words exponential decay once the birth rate lowers to below the death rate? Assuming about a fourth of the women are in the fertile window per week and a sex ratio of 1:1, this means with every pairing, there is at most a 25% pregnancy rate per week in the population. But of course, those that didn't get pregnant before would try again and so it would increase to be more than 50% of the women within a month that get pregnant, say something like 80%. Of those that get pregnant say 20% miscarry and 1% end up with a stillbirth. This would mean a 79% birth rate in pregnant women which would mean a 31.6% birth rate in the population overall. And this 31.6% would be every 2 years, except that 2% of breastfeeding women will get pregnant before their periods and the chance of getting pregnant increases with every passing period until after 2 years, when breastfeeding stops, it gets back to the 80% rate. Sort of like a slow but exponential growth.

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