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September 5th, 2015, 06:58 AM   #1
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Gambling

Hi

I was thinking about gambling systems,and i have a question.

Lets say you are playing with 2 odds .The stake is 1.
Your chance to win is 50%(ok its lower in real,or the odds is lower).

Now what if you play like this: You bet 1 unit on 2 odds,and if you lose you bet 2 units on 2 odds.This way you have 75% chance to win if Im right,but you are risking 3 units.

Is there any difference between them,which of them is better?

In the first case at least 50% of your bets must win so you wont lose money.
In the 2nd case 75% is required.
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September 5th, 2015, 10:01 AM   #2
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This sounds like the "gambler's ruin" problem. If, every time you win, you start over again, and every time you win you double your bet then for each sequence you are guaranteed to win one (of what ever your base bet is) whatever the odds are. The fallacy is that for this to work, you would have to have an infinite amount of money to begin with! Each time you lose, you double your bet so, in a losing streak, the amount you have to bet is going to be enormous! It won't take much to "break your bank". For example, if you are betting $1 as your base amount, after 10 consecutive losses, you will have lost over $1000. That's fine, you can argue that you will [I]eventually[/b] win but you must have had more than $1000 to start with. And if you do, it only takes 13 consecutive losses to go over $10000. Do you have that much to wager? It takes only 19 consecutive losses to go over $1000000. The odds of 13 or 19 consecutive losses are small but they destroy your "sure thing".
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