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October 29th, 2008, 12:53 AM  #1 
Newbie Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 1 Thanks: 0  probability of incorrect conclusion? confused..
I have a pH measurement kit that gives unbiased pH measurements, which float around the true value with a standard deviation of 0.15 and it has an approximately normal distribution for its measurement errors and supposedly, if the pH of the lake I'm testing is below 5, it's considered "threatened". the question is: if you take only a single water sample and measure the pH, whats the probability that you'll incorrectly conclude the lake is threatened? 
October 29th, 2008, 12:50 PM  #2 
Global Moderator Joined: May 2007 Posts: 6,584 Thanks: 610  Re: probability of incorrect conclusion? confused..
It depends on the measured value and also how you are drawing the conclusion. For example if you measure the pH to be 5, what would you conclude, since it is equally probable to be below 5 (bad) as above 5 (good).


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