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 January 14th, 2014, 09:27 AM #1 Newbie   Joined: Jan 2014 Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 Stats - subscription renewal rates Hello, I have the following problem: 1. a magazine gains 1 subscriber per day 2. the subscriptions are renewed on a monthly basis 3. each subscriber is 90% likely to continue their subscription from one month to the next Please could you tell me how to predict how many subscribers there will be after x months? Thank you for your help, mnbv
 January 14th, 2014, 11:23 AM #2 Member   Joined: Dec 2013 Posts: 82 Thanks: 0 Re: Stats - subscription renewal rates This would be a linear recurrence sequence. If we assume 30 days in each month. $x_0=0,\,\,\ x_{n+1}=0.9x_n+30$ Find the closed form: $x_n=\left(0+\dfrac{30}{0.9-1}\right)0.9^n-\dfrac{30}{0.9-1}=(-300)0.9^n+300$ Obviously you won't get fractions of people but this would be a good approximation.
 January 14th, 2014, 04:20 PM #3 Newbie   Joined: Jan 2014 Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 Re: Stats - subscription renewal rates Hi Slinkey, Thank you
 January 15th, 2014, 02:12 AM #4 Member   Joined: Dec 2013 Posts: 82 Thanks: 0 Re: Stats - subscription renewal rates You're welcome.

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