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January 14th, 2014, 09:27 AM   #1
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Stats - subscription renewal rates

Hello,

I have the following problem:
1. a magazine gains 1 subscriber per day
2. the subscriptions are renewed on a monthly basis
3. each subscriber is 90% likely to continue their subscription from one month to the next

Please could you tell me how to predict how many subscribers there will be after x months?

Thank you for your help,

mnbv
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January 14th, 2014, 11:23 AM   #2
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Re: Stats - subscription renewal rates

This would be a linear recurrence sequence. If we assume 30 days in each month.



Find the closed form:



Obviously you won't get fractions of people but this would be a good approximation.
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January 14th, 2014, 04:20 PM   #3
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Re: Stats - subscription renewal rates

Hi Slinkey,

Thank you
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January 15th, 2014, 02:12 AM   #4
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Re: Stats - subscription renewal rates

You're welcome.
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