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How to convert goals to Asian handicap?



use Poisson distribution formula

when


1-0 0-0 0-1

2-0 1-1 0-2

2-1 2-2 1-2

.....

.....

.....

10-9 10-10 9-10

....

....

...

sum up could get win draw loss



for example

home team expected 2 goals , away team expected 1 goal,



calculation outcome

1x2 % 60.6% - 21.2% - 18.3% (1.65 - 4.72 - 5.4



above is goals to win draw loss




below is goals to Asian handicap when expected goals 2-1
....
....

Home -1.5 & -2.0 : Away +1.5 & +2.0 30.3% - 69.7% (3.30 - 1.43)

Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 36.7% - 63.3% (2.72 - 1.5

Home -1.0 & -1.5 : Away +1.0 & +1.5 41.7% - 58.3% (2.40 - 1.72)

Home -1.0 : Away +1.0 48.2% - 51.8% (2.07 - 1.93)

Home -0.5 & -1.0 : Away +0.5 & +1.0 55.2% - 44.8% (1.81 - 2.23)

Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 60.6% - 39.4% (1.65 - 2.54)

Home 0 & -0.5 : Away 0 & +0.5 67.7% - 32.3% (1.48 - 3.10)

Home 0 : Away 0 76.8% - 23.2% (1.30 - 4.31)

Home 0 & +0.5 : Away 0 & -0.5 79.6% - 20.4% (1.26 - 4.90)

Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 81.7% - 18.3% (1.22 - 5.4

Home +0.5 & +1.0: Away -0.5 & -1.0 86.9% - 13.1% (1.15 - 7.65)

Home +1.0 : Away -1.0 92.8% - 7.2% (1.08 - 13.90)

Home +1.0 & +1.5: Away -1.0 & -1.5 93.3% - 6.7% (1.07 - 14.84)

Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 93.7% - 6.3% (1.07 - 15.7
......
.......


Anyone know how to convert goals to Asian handicap?

Denis

No.