My Math Forum Probabilty of consecutive heads/tails in weighted coin toss

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 September 3rd, 2008, 09:02 PM #1 Newbie   Joined: Sep 2008 Posts: 3 Thanks: 0 Probabilty of consecutive heads/tails in weighted coin toss Hi, Can someone please help with this. I keep getting different answers to this from different people. Supposing you have a weighted coin which lands heads up 70% of the time and tails up 30% of the time. Q. What is the probability that it lands on tails 20 or more times in a row if I did this 1000 times? *Also could I have the equation on how you worked this out so that I can change the weighting, number of trials etc (I need to know this for my business!!!) Thank you very much. Zak
 September 4th, 2008, 05:22 AM #2 Senior Member   Joined: Jul 2008 Posts: 895 Thanks: 0 Re: Probabilty of consecutive heads/tails in weighted coin toss Just curious ...What business is that?
September 5th, 2008, 04:05 PM   #3
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Re: Probabilty of consecutive heads/tails in weighted coin toss

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dave Just curious ...What business is that?
Hi,

The business is basically currency speculation. I think I might be able to do this full-time, but I need to understand drawdown of the trading account if I am to be profitable in the long run. E.g. if I have $1000 to start with and that goes to$500 (50% loss), in order to get the balance to the original amount (\$1000) it will take a 100% gain.

Therefore the drawdown should not really exceed 25 or 30%, which is managable. Thats why I wanted to know that if I trade a number of times with a system that worked say 30% of the time (with winners being bigger than losers) what are the chances of having X losers in a row over a number of trades. I was told in the other post to go to: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Run.html but I don't think I will be able to understand this. Oh well, for now I'll just risk max of 3% of my account per trade, which I hope will not cause too many problems ::fingers crossed::

 Tags coin, consecutive, heads or tails, probabilty, toss, weighted

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# what is the probability of heads and a tail on a weighted coin

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