January 1st, 2013, 09:18 PM  #1  
Newbie Joined: Jan 2013 Posts: 1 Thanks: 0  Stats question
I ran across the following in a post by an Austrian professor who, at the time, was advocating the death penalty for Global Warming deniers. He has since apologized, and retracted his stand. The Global Warming bit doesn't really interest me, and isn't relevant. It's that statistics part I'm curious about. So here's the quote (with one parenthetical clarification by me): Quote:
Obviously there's a chance that if the scientists are wrong, they still might be partially right, but it's hard to see whether or not that's how he's getting to his 10 million number. The one potential flaw I can see in my own logic is that I'm assuming there are only two outcomes, and that they are mutually exclusive. If that's not the case, then the 10 million number could make sense. Anyway, that's my read on all of this, am I right, or is our Austrian professor?  
January 2nd, 2013, 03:02 PM  #2 
Global Moderator Joined: May 2007 Posts: 6,805 Thanks: 716  Re: Stats question
All the professor is doing is computing the mathematical expectation. In this context it is meaningless since we are dealing with a one time event (GW or not GW), while expectations are useful when the experiments are repeated.


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