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 June 18th, 2008, 05:09 AM #1 Newbie   Joined: Jun 2008 Posts: 4 Thanks: 0 Probability in a Trading Card Game?? Hey everyone. I've never been great at Math & I need some Help. I'm in the process of writing an article and I need a little help finishing a math problem. I play a trading card game with 4 "rarities": Mythic Rare, Rare, Uncommon, & Common. I'm trying to calculate the probability of opening ONE PARTICULAR Mythic Rare in a Box of Booster Packs. There are 36 Booster Packs in 1 Box. Booster Packs contain 1 Rare/Mythic Rare (Supposedly 1 in 8 Booster Packs will contain a Mythic Rare.) 3 Uncommons 10 Commons 1 Mana 15 Cards total There are 15 Possible Mythic Rares in the set of cards.What is the probability of opening a particular Mythic Rare in the Booster Box? What is the probability of opening a particular "regular Rare?" (there are 53 possible Rares in a set of cards) Here is what I have so far: For the PARTICULAR Mythic Rare:There is a 1:8 chance of getting a Mythic Rare in a booster pack: 12.5% So, in 36 Booster packs, I should open 4.5 (4 or 5 Mythic Rares)?? There is a 1:15 chance of opening the PARTICULAR Mythic Rare I'm looking for: 6.67% 12.5% * 6.67% = 0.83% (or 1/120) chance of opening a Particular Mythic Rare. But what about opening that Particular Mythic Rare in 36 booster packs? For the PARTICULAR Regular RareThere is a 7:8 chance of getting a Regular Rare in a booster pack: 87.5% So, in 36 Booster Packs, I should open 31.5 (31 or 32) regular rares?? There is a 1:53 chance of opening the PARTICULAR Regular rare I'm looking for: 1.89% 87.5% * 1.89% = 1.65% (or 7/424) chance of opening a Particular Regular Rare. But what about opening that Particular Regular Rare in 36 booster packs? Is this math correct so far? Or am I totally confusing things?? What I'm not sure about is taking the next step to figure the packs in the box: If my probability is 1:120 and I have 36 booster packs. Each with a 1:120 chance of getting the particular Mythic Rare (1/8 * 1/15). Wouldn't I multiply (1/120) * 36 = 0.3? OR would I have (1/120)^36? I don't think my calculator will do the latter: 1.41083E-75 What?? If I use the (7/424) * 36 = .59 If I use (7/424)^36= 6.89221E-65 ?? What unit is it? What does it mean? 0.3 of a chance I get the particular Mythic Rare in 36 booster packs? 0.3% chance? I'm confused. THANK YOU FOR YOUR HELP! (I wish I had paid more attention in school!!) Whoever answers the question right will get the credit in the article!! Bye for now, Ray
 June 18th, 2008, 07:48 AM #2 Newbie   Joined: Jun 2008 Posts: 4 Thanks: 0 Re: Probability in a Trading Card Game?? I've simplified this question: http://www.mymathforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=3692

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