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July 9th, 2015, 04:20 AM   #1
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Question re probability of explanation of Exam procedure

My daughter is appealing the result of a verbal examination.

The exam involves an examiner observing the candidate interviewing someone, and having to undertake certain tasks. Marks are awarded for completion of interview technique appropriately.

The total marks for the examination were 35 points, awarded from a list of questions on the left of the marking sheet which gave either one or two points for each question.
The examiner fills in "lozenges" on the right of the paper for each question, allocating 0, 1, or 2 for each question. (for computer marking)
My daughter failed the paper by 0.7 marks (pass decided by class average), and got 23 out of 35 for this paper.

As an aid for herself, the examiner placed ticks beside the questions on the left of the paper during the exam, or noted them in some other way. Almost all of these ticks or notes corresponded to appropriately awarded marks on the lozenges at the right of the paper (23 out of 25).

There were 10 questions (tasks) which my daughter did not fulfill which had no ticks on the left and zero marks awarded.

There are two ticks beside questions on the left which do not correspond to marks awarded in the lozenges on the right (they have been awarded zero) When she reviewed the paper, my daughter knew she had answered these two questions, so she queried it, because she reasoned that the examiner had made a mistake in transposing the marks from the ticks on the left to the lozenges on the right.

We argued this point with the University.

The University has replied with a hearsay verbal explanation from the examiner one month later that ticks were made as an aid-memoire during the paper because the candidate did not fulfill the tasks in chronological order, and placed them there to remind herself to check that she later fulfilled the tasks.

My question: Is it possible to determine a mathematical probability of the more likely explanation
Firstly: 23 ticks/notes on the left representing 23 marks awarded, 10 questions which have not been ticked all being allocated zero, and 2 ticks accidentally being allocated zero to give 23 out of 35
Versus, Secondly: the University's explanation of the examiner ticking/noting 25 questions that had been unanswered at some stage during the exam and later during the exam awarding 23 out of those 25 as they were answered, whilst not ticking 10 questions which were later awarded zero marks.

The exam lasted 15 minutes

I tried to upload a specimen paper but file is too big

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Stuart
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July 10th, 2015, 03:43 AM   #2
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