
Advanced Statistics Advanced Probability and Statistics Math Forum 
 LinkBack  Thread Tools  Display Modes 
June 23rd, 2008, 11:40 AM  #1 
Newbie Joined: Jun 2008 Posts: 2 Thanks: 0  probability of winning a bet with 3 rolls 0999
A friend and I both play an online game and included in the game is a /random command which generates a number from 0 to 999. He has offered to pay me some ingame money if he is unable to roll over 550 on 2 out of 3 rolls, and if he can I have to pay him. Now my stats is pretty rusty, but I think it goes something like this the probability of him winning 2/3 rolls is (0.449*0.449*0.551)*3 + (0.449*0.449*0.449) which comes to ~42.3% So if Im right I have the upper hand, can anyone help me out because I'm not at all certain. Thanks! 
June 23rd, 2008, 11:43 AM  #2 
Newbie Joined: Jun 2008 Posts: 2 Thanks: 0  Re: probability of winning a bet with 3 rolls 0999
hmm I couldnt find an edit button, but I should specify and say that he has to roll 550 or above on at least 2 out of the 3 rolls, so can roll 2 or 3 550+ numbers and win

June 25th, 2008, 09:43 AM  #3 
Member Joined: Aug 2007 Posts: 93 Thanks: 0  Re: probability of winning a bet with 3 rolls 0999
From a Bayesian perspective, what is the subjective probability that your friend is better at statistics than you and offering you a sucker bet? (just kidding) your calculation is right 
June 27th, 2008, 06:41 PM  #4 
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: probability of winning a bet with 3 rolls 0999
Good reasoning, correct setup, correct calculation  though I would have rounded it to 42.4%. If your friend wagered 1000 units that he could do it, you should accept the bet if he'll take a bet of 1350 or less from you. (Equal bets would be favorable for you.) This assumes that you're risk neutral and your friend doesn't cheat. 

Tags 
bet, probability, rolls, winning 
Search tags for this page 
Click on a term to search for related topics.

Thread Tools  
Display Modes  

Similar Threads  
Thread  Thread Starter  Forum  Replies  Last Post 
Probability of winning in game  kameleon_99  Advanced Statistics  2  January 15th, 2014 12:13 PM 
Probability of Winning  Melissa  Probability and Statistics  1  May 10th, 2011 03:28 PM 
Probability of A winning the game  varunnayudu  Advanced Statistics  1  November 28th, 2010 06:31 AM 
Probability of winning?  inequality  Algebra  1  November 9th, 2009 10:29 AM 
Probability of Winning  wkunaman  Advanced Statistics  11  March 18th, 2007 06:17 PM 