My Math Forum probability of winning a bet with 3 rolls 0-999

 June 23rd, 2008, 11:40 AM #1 Newbie   Joined: Jun 2008 Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 probability of winning a bet with 3 rolls 0-999 A friend and I both play an online game and included in the game is a /random command which generates a number from 0 to 999. He has offered to pay me some ingame money if he is unable to roll over 550 on 2 out of 3 rolls, and if he can I have to pay him. Now my stats is pretty rusty, but I think it goes something like this the probability of him winning 2/3 rolls is (0.449*0.449*0.551)*3 + (0.449*0.449*0.449) which comes to ~42.3% So if Im right I have the upper hand, can anyone help me out because I'm not at all certain. Thanks!
 June 23rd, 2008, 11:43 AM #2 Newbie   Joined: Jun 2008 Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 Re: probability of winning a bet with 3 rolls 0-999 hmm I couldnt find an edit button, but I should specify and say that he has to roll 550 or above on at least 2 out of the 3 rolls, so can roll 2 or 3 550+ numbers and win
 June 25th, 2008, 09:43 AM #3 Member   Joined: Aug 2007 Posts: 93 Thanks: 0 Re: probability of winning a bet with 3 rolls 0-999 From a Bayesian perspective, what is the subjective probability that your friend is better at statistics than you and offering you a sucker bet? (just kidding) your calculation is right
 June 27th, 2008, 06:41 PM #4 Global Moderator     Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC -5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms Re: probability of winning a bet with 3 rolls 0-999 Good reasoning, correct setup, correct calculation -- though I would have rounded it to 42.4%. If your friend wagered 1000 units that he could do it, you should accept the bet if he'll take a bet of 1350 or less from you. (Equal bets would be favorable for you.) This assumes that you're risk neutral and your friend doesn't cheat.

 Tags bet, probability, rolls, winning

### roll 0-999

Click on a term to search for related topics.
 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Similar Threads Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post kameleon_-99 Advanced Statistics 2 January 15th, 2014 12:13 PM Melissa Probability and Statistics 1 May 10th, 2011 03:28 PM varunnayudu Advanced Statistics 1 November 28th, 2010 06:31 AM inequality Algebra 1 November 9th, 2009 10:29 AM wkunaman Advanced Statistics 11 March 18th, 2007 06:17 PM

 Contact - Home - Forums - Cryptocurrency Forum - Top