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May 5th, 2008, 01:12 AM  #1 
Newbie Joined: May 2008 Posts: 1 Thanks: 0  Complex probability calculation
Hi, it is required of me to write a math formula that will do the following... I have 5 values (2,3,4,8,12). A user can bet on those values. (has 20 units on start) One value will be selected and user will depending on his bet win a number of new units he bet on or lose the units he bet. Through a certain number of plays  (1000 for example) he should be on 90 % of what he started with. Now there is quite a few variables to be considered here... Can somebody at least point me to a formula or theorem that could be useful? Thank you, Dani 
May 14th, 2008, 07:30 PM  #2 
Newbie Joined: May 2008 Posts: 21 Thanks: 0 
This post is a little dated, but it caught my attention. I am a bit confused by what is being asked. You have some random variable let's call it X defined on the set {2,3,4,8,12} I think what you are asking is what probabilities do we need such that through a certain number of plays, the player should have 90% of what he started with ie we need to define 0<=pi<=1 for i = 1,2,3,4,5 such that p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 + p5 = 1 P(X = 2) = p1 P(X = 3) = p2 P(X = 4) = p3 P(X = 8) = p4 P(X = 12) = p5 Let Y be the random variable which represents the number of units the player has at any given time. Now when you say that through a certain number of plays he should have 90% of what he started with do you mean E[Y] = 0.9 * 20 = 18 I am a bit perplexed by the formulation of the question since for instance I could bet all 20 units on 2 and it come up 3 and lose. Clearly, I will never return to 20 units or 18. Can we define any strategy and betting behavior of the player to achieve the desired expectation? I am also confused by the payout structure. I assume that you intend to convey that let's say if I bet 2 units on 2 and it comes up 2 I win 4 units. Is this correct? I have some ideas on how to proceed, but I will wait for clarification provided the answer is still meaningful to you. 

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