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February 13th, 2011, 07:58 PM   #1
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Gambling deviations

In charting a mere 110 hrs of blackjack and about 7700 hands of play I have a graph and wonder if I can attempt to begin to extract an expected value or win rate based on the fact that in the long run the area above ev line should equal the area below the ev line. The attatched graph shows a 110 hr period and for simplicity I have broken that down into 29 equal 4 hr periods although it was 29 trips of various length.

Or could I use the fact that a player is within one standard deviation of his expected value about 66 percent of the time and within 2 sd of his ev about 33 percent of the time.

I am hoping I can extract some idea of what I should be making per hour from the information I am collecting but I know I have a very small sample size for statistics. For me to bet the largest amount I can without risking going down too hard is very important to build my bankroll.

Here is the graph and we will see if it pastes right here. I have made about 1000 in about 110 hours.

I hope this might be of interest to someone but if not that is okay. The numbers are my passion.
Attached Files
 graph.doc (59.0 KB, 19 views)

 February 13th, 2011, 08:34 PM #2 Member   Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 36 Thanks: 0 Re: Gambling deviations You should explain your graph better. For instance you could label your axis, your legend, for starters. At this point I can't be sure what this graph is supposed to be telling me. As well it might be more useful for us if this were in excel format so we could extract the numbers directly instead of referring to the graph.
February 13th, 2011, 11:50 PM   #3
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Re: Gambling deviations

You are right, sloppy work on my part. I have tinkered with the avg bet and win rate to best produce my current net profit. An decent card counter can generally expect about 1.5 percent of his total bets and I have made this 1.3. In general the average bet equals twice the min bet, mine was 5, but I bet a little heavier so 13 is a fair rough average bet. Please ask if you need more info.

Again I wonder how long before I can try and see an idea of win rate and what other info can I extract from this type of graphing.

Thanks for the help and I hope you find this interesting. I appreciate your interest in my post.

It appears I have reached the point where I have almost overcome one standard deviation of variance which is significant to my understanding but I am not sure why I have just heard that language expressed in my blackjack group.
Attached Files
 ablackmath.xls (23.5 KB, 22 views)

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