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November 1st, 2010, 06:35 AM   #1
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Game theory question with 4 variables

  • Variable 1 = 58% probability for positive result
    Variable 2 = 52% probability for positive result
    Variable 3 = 53% probability for positive result
    Variable 4 = 51% probability for positive result

You can only have positive ore negative result.
These 4 variables is needed to calculate the outcome of the final result.

If 2 variables = negative result, and 2 variables = positive result. The outcome will be the same as the beginning result ( feks. If the beginning result is 100 the outcome will be 100)

If 1 variables = negative result and 3 variables = positive result. The outcome will be positive ( feks. If the beginning result is 100 the outcome will be above 100).

If 3 varibales = negative result and 1 variables = positive result. The outcome will be negative ( feks. If the beginning result is 100 the outcome will be below 100)

And so on.

What is the probability in percentage to hit = 100, abowe 100 and below 100 ?

Thanks alot for any answer
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November 1st, 2010, 09:31 AM   #2
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Re: Game theory question with 4 variables

There are 16 possibilities in total: 5 that cause an increase, 5 that cause a decrease, and 6 that cause it to stay the same. With numbers this small, I tend to think you should just calculate them directly.
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November 2nd, 2010, 06:43 AM   #3
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Re: Game theory question with 4 variables

Thanks for the reply. How did you calculate the answer ?
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November 2nd, 2010, 10:32 AM   #4
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Re: Game theory question with 4 variables

Quote:
Originally Posted by solq4
Thanks for the reply. How did you calculate the answer ?
ways of getting a tie, then equal numbers for the others. Alternately, 1 way to have everything go to one side and 4 ways to get all but one; that's 5 for positive and 5 for negative, leaving 6 for ties.

Or you could do both calculations and breathe a sign of relief knowing that "math works".
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November 7th, 2010, 07:56 AM   #5
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Re: Game theory question with 4 variables

Thanks . How do you do it for excact percentages for getting the results ?
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November 7th, 2010, 09:48 AM   #6
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Re: Game theory question with 4 variables

For any individual combination, multiply the probabilities for each element, using p if it occurs and 1-p otherwise.
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