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November 1st, 2010, 06:35 AM  #1 
Newbie Joined: Nov 2010 Posts: 6 Thanks: 0  Game theory question with 4 variables
You can only have positive ore negative result. These 4 variables is needed to calculate the outcome of the final result. If 2 variables = negative result, and 2 variables = positive result. The outcome will be the same as the beginning result ( feks. If the beginning result is 100 the outcome will be 100) If 1 variables = negative result and 3 variables = positive result. The outcome will be positive ( feks. If the beginning result is 100 the outcome will be above 100). If 3 varibales = negative result and 1 variables = positive result. The outcome will be negative ( feks. If the beginning result is 100 the outcome will be below 100) And so on. What is the probability in percentage to hit = 100, abowe 100 and below 100 ? Thanks alot for any answer 
November 1st, 2010, 09:31 AM  #2 
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: Game theory question with 4 variables
There are 16 possibilities in total: 5 that cause an increase, 5 that cause a decrease, and 6 that cause it to stay the same. With numbers this small, I tend to think you should just calculate them directly.

November 2nd, 2010, 06:43 AM  #3 
Newbie Joined: Nov 2010 Posts: 6 Thanks: 0  Re: Game theory question with 4 variables
Thanks for the reply. How did you calculate the answer ?

November 2nd, 2010, 10:32 AM  #4  
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: Game theory question with 4 variables Quote:
Or you could do both calculations and breathe a sign of relief knowing that "math works".  
November 7th, 2010, 07:56 AM  #5 
Newbie Joined: Nov 2010 Posts: 6 Thanks: 0  Re: Game theory question with 4 variables
Thanks . How do you do it for excact percentages for getting the results ?

November 7th, 2010, 09:48 AM  #6 
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: Game theory question with 4 variables
For any individual combination, multiply the probabilities for each element, using p if it occurs and 1p otherwise.


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