
Advanced Statistics Advanced Probability and Statistics Math Forum 
 LinkBack  Thread Tools  Display Modes 
May 14th, 2010, 08:24 AM  #1 
Senior Member Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 251 Thanks: 0  Deal or No Deal
Now that the semester is over I can ask the question that I've been wanting to answer for about two years: How do you calculate the correct decision in the TV game show "Deal or No Deal"? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deal_or....S._game_show) 
May 14th, 2010, 09:13 AM  #2 
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: Deal or No Deal
You posted in Probability and Statistics, so I imagine your question is really, "In Deal or No Deal, how do you maximize your expected value?". In that interpretation, it's an easy question: you average the posttax value of the unrevealed briefcases and accept any offer at least that high. Swapping cases doesn't matter.

May 14th, 2010, 10:29 AM  #3 
Senior Member Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 251 Thanks: 0  Re: Deal or No Deal
Hi, CRG, You are right about my question. But what other way, besides maximizing your expected value, is there be to make the "correct" decision? I can't even imagine another way to make that decision. Also, I think just averaging the unrevealed briefcases is not right. Let's say your choice is to accept a higher than average offer, or open three more suitcases. Let's say there are more low valued than high valued suitcases out there. What is your likelihood of opening three small suitcases and increasing your next offer? I bet there is more to this than just an average. 
May 14th, 2010, 11:26 AM  #4  
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: Deal or No Deal Quote:
Quote:
Last edited by skipjack; June 3rd, 2015 at 08:37 PM.  
May 14th, 2010, 11:32 AM  #5 
Senior Member Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 251 Thanks: 0  Re: Deal or No Deal
No. I don't know anything about the banker's strategy. Hmmmm....

May 14th, 2010, 11:39 AM  #6 
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: Deal or No Deal
Obviously the expected value strategy falls apart if you expect that the Banker may offer you more than the expected value of taking your suitcase in later periods. But if we don't know how he acts, it's very hard to say what strategy to use.


Tags 
deal 
Thread Tools  
Display Modes  

Similar Threads  
Thread  Thread Starter  Forum  Replies  Last Post 
The better deal  shunya  Elementary Math  2  March 12th, 2014 08:24 AM 
How to deal with powers of i  zalmanq  Algebra  3  May 9th, 2012 03:53 AM 
simple question, hard to deal with!  Snoopy  Abstract Algebra  6  July 1st, 2011 10:43 AM 
Deal or no Deal winning strategy  GoldMember  Advanced Statistics  3  April 5th, 2010 05:59 PM 