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December 25th, 2009, 12:20 AM  #1  
Newbie Joined: Dec 2009 Posts: 7 Thanks: 0  Deal or no Deal winning strategy
I was wondering about a winning strategy for the popular Television show Deal or no Deal. The rules are Quote:
Case values Case values $ 0.01 $ 1 $ 5 $ 10 $ 25 $ 50 $ 75 $ 100 $ 200 $ 300 $ 400 $ 500 $ 750 $ 1,000 $ 5,000 $ 10,000 $ 25,000 $ 50,000 $ 75,000 $ 100,000 $ 200,000 $ 300,000 $ 400,000 $ 500,000 $ 750,000 $ 1,000,000 Now at any stage if the expected value of the money available on the board is less than the bankers offer we are told to choose the bankers offer. I was wondering if there are other strategies to win this game. If anyone has other thoughts regardin this game feel free to share like decision making etc.  
December 25th, 2009, 10:52 PM  #2 
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: Deal or no Deal winning strategy
The core strategy is to add up the value of the remaining briefcases, divide by the number of briefcases, and compare this average to the total offered. Add to this consideration the tax implications of winning. A contestant in the 15% tax bracket winning $10,000 will probably pay 1520% of $10,000 in taxes, but above 35% in taxes on $1,000,000. So $1,000,000 is worth less than 100 times $10,000 to the contestant. So the modified strategy averages not the nominal amount but the posttax amount. Add to this consideration the contestant's riskaversion. To many people, $50,000 is preferable to a 50% chance at $100,000 (and a 50% chance of $0). There may be other considerations beside, but these are the only two that come to mind immediately. 
April 5th, 2010, 03:42 PM  #3 
Newbie Joined: Dec 2009 Posts: 7 Thanks: 0  Re: Deal or no Deal winning strategy
hmmm.. If the host at the end gives you the option to exchange the briefcases, would you exchange them? Say you know that one of the suitcases has $100000 and the other one $0. The probability of winning is 50% so is it optimal to exchange the briefcases? 
April 5th, 2010, 06:59 PM  #4  
Global Moderator Joined: Nov 2006 From: UTC 5 Posts: 16,046 Thanks: 938 Math Focus: Number theory, computational mathematics, combinatorics, FOM, symbolic logic, TCS, algorithms  Re: Deal or no Deal winning strategy Quote:
 

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